Thursday, December 28, 2006
Friday, December 22, 2006
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Edwards, Obama Tied In New Iowa Poll
Barack Obama 22%
John Edwards 22%
Tom Vilsack 12%
Hillary Clinton 10%
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Clinton Has 7 Point Lead Over McCain In New Newsweek Poll
A new Newsweek poll shows Sem. Hillary Clinton has opened a 7 point lead over
Sen. John McCain in a head-to-head matchup for the 2008 presidential election.
Clinton Has 7 Point Lead Over McCain In New Newsweek Poll
Monday, December 18, 2006
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Edwards To Announce After Christmas In New Orleans
vice presidential nominee, will announce for the 2008 Democratic
presidential nomination just after Christmas in New Orleans. Edwards
will make his announcement in the 9th Ward of New Orleans one of the
most devastated areas after Hurricane Katrina.
Edwards To Announce After Christmas In New Orleans
Bayh Drops Out Of 2008 Race
Sen. Evan Bayh is the latest to drop out of the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Bayh Drops Out Of 2008 Race
Friday, December 15, 2006
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Monday, December 11, 2006
Kucinich To Run Again
Dennis J. Kucinich mentioned that, oh, by the way, he planned to run
for president again in 2008.
A Familiar Democrat Joins ’08 Hopefuls
Jeb Bush Opens Door To 2008 Run
opened the door to the possibility of a 2008 run for president. In the
interview published Monday, Bush told chief Washington correspondent
Ronald Kessler he was not ruling out a run in 2008 and did not know
what the future might hold...
http://bluesunbelt.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=52
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Friday, December 08, 2006
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
2008 Candidates With The Most Cash
So, we wondered, who's leading the money game this early in the campaign?
Turns out the answer was pretty easy to find.
The Center for Responsive Politics has a chart on the 2008 presidential hopefuls who recently ran for federal office, as well as those who will be leaving state offices behind to run for the White House.
Among those who have run for a federal office recently or have a PAC (or both), Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads the way with $14.38 million available between his campaign funds and his PAC, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is No. 2 at $13.99 million and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana is third at $11.18 million.
Among Republicans, Arizona Sen. John McCain leads the pack at $1.5 million.
Of course, Kerry still has money left from his presidential bid and Clinton just ran a Senate race, so that puts them at an advantage.
Among the governors running for president, Republican George Pataki of New York has the most money in his PAC at $932,000.
Posted by Ron Vallo
WHO HAS THE MOST CASH FOR '08As becomes more cle...
Patti Doyle To Be Clinton Campaign Manager
The latest move is the choice of
longtime adviser Patti Solis Doyle as campaign manager. That follows
the recent recruitment of three seasoned political operatives who, if
she runs, would play key roles on what is now a rapidly expanding
Clinton campaign organization.
The three are Jonathan Mantz, who
has been working for New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine (D), as finance
director; Phil Singer, who was communications director for the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, as a communications
strategist; and Karen Hicks, who ran former Vermont governor Howard
Dean's New Hampshire operation in 2004, to oversee organizing,
particularly in the early states. Patti Doyle To Be Clinton Campaign Manager
Kucinich Might Run Again
growing, word on Capitol Hill today was that" Rep. Dennis Kucinich
(D-OH) "might get in," the Cleveland Plain Dealer
reports. "Whether that would mean he'd start an exploratory committee,
or simply announce his candidacy, or do nothing, is unclear."Kucinich Might Run Again
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Rumors Allard May Resign
We present this with the grain of salt appropriate for a totally unconfirmed and seemingly improbable rumor.
It has been suggested that Sen. Wayne Allard may resign his Senate seat in the next three weeks to make way for an appointed replacement by outgoing Governor Bill Owens (R).
Potential replacements are the usual Republican suspects mentioned in
the Big Line (left), including--and we're not making this up--Bill Owens.
Enough well-placed people have mentioned it that we felt obligated to
report it. It would be an eyebrow-raising maneuver to say the least,
and we're pretty sure the Owens self-appointment part is meant to be a
joke.
| Allard to Resign? |
Clinton Gets First Major Endorsement In New Hampshire
Veteran New Hampshire political operative Rep. Jim Splaine, state
represenative of Portsmoth and Newington, strongly endorsed a Hillary
Clinton candidacy in his NH Insider blog today. Splaine, sponsor of New
Hampshire's First In The Nation primary legislation, has been involved
in the presidential campaigns of a number of candidates over the years
including John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Bobby Kennedy, George
McGovern, Sargent Shriver, Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Jessie Jackson,
Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and Howard Dean. More
Monday, December 04, 2006
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Hagel May Be In Best Position In GOP Field
Bayh In, Daschle Out, Clinton Gearing Up
Quick ranking of presidential contenders 2008
Bayh probably doesn't have a chance, he's running because people close to him have been telling him to run for so long that he's forgotten what an unknown he is outside the world of wonkdom.
Hillary is of course in the top tier of Democratic candidates for 2008, but something tells me she isn't going to make it. Vilsack is interesting, keep your eye on him.
All of them right now are holding their breath to see if Obama runs. Right now that guy holds all the cards. I have zilch-o contacts in Illinois politics and certainly no contact with anyone even vaguely close to him. But every Democratic fundraiser and politician I know is excited about him, and I know a pretty wideranging bunch, from Blue Dog types here in Texas to old black power types in KC to congressional staffers in DC. There's a lot of legitimate, non-hype grassroots interest around Obama right now and not all of it is there as part of some campaign to sell his book. And my own opinion? He's the strongest candidate either party could field right now.
The question mark hanging over him is why we get the vague stuff from Clinton right now, nothing out of the Richardson camp, and only insulated senate ego trips like Kerry, Bayh and Edwards making white house noises. It's also why we're not hearing much from a Democratic governor that a source tells me would love to make a run. I'm holding off on naming him now because I was promised more info if I held off for now, but his name has been floated as a potential candidate before. Anyway, if Obama decides not to run you are going to see the Democratic field broaden considerably.
As a final note, I am adding the clown George Pataki to the GOP side. Earlier I mentioned ego cases - Pataki could set that bar.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 100
Wes Clark (AR) 89
Hillary Clinton (NY) 56 (+1)
John Edwards (NC) 54
Bill Richardson (NM) 47
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45 (+1)
John Murtha (PA) 33
Al Gore (TN) 24
Tom Daschle (SD) 20
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Evan Bayh (IN) 16 (+1)
John Kerry (MA) 14
Mike Gravel (AK) 10
GOP
Condoleeza Rice (CA) 79
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 70
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 32
John McCain (AZ) 26
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 20
Mike Huckabee (AR) 19
Duncan Hunter (CA) 19
Sam Brownback (KS) 19
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 7
posted by Compost Books
Quick ranking of presidential contenders 2008
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Handicapping the Presidential Race - Democrats
Hillary Clinton (sen-NY) - 6 to 1
Leads the early polls with 33%. There is a huge anyone-but-Hillary movement (of which I am a member) but she has the best organization of anyone in the race, is a strong campaigner, and benefits from the financial advantages senators have. I will be disappointed if she wins the nomination, but not surprised.
Brian Schweitzer (gov-MO) - 7 to 1
This is a dark horse who isn’t mentioned on any of the polls. He is a successful western governor from a western, presumptively red state. My, albeit western, opinion is that the chances of a long term shift to a Democratic majority lies in making the western states blue. Nominating a western governor could make that happen.
Barack Obama (sen-IL) - 8 to 1
Second in the most recent poll (15%). He has more charisma than every other potential candidate combined. He has a John Kennedy aura about him. The question is whether he can maintain the charm for another 18 months.
John Edwards (SC) - 9 to 1
Last season’s charmer. His biggest flaw is he has no natural base to work from. Polling 14%
Wesley Clark (IL) - 10 to 1
The man with the military creds. If national security is a big 2008 issue, Clark will benefit the most. He has honed his media skills the past two years. Polling 4%.
Al Gore (TN) - 12 to 1
My choice. My man. The man who should have been president. His biggest flaw in 2000 was his image as a wooden politician. He has developed a vibrant speaking skill since then. I don’t know why he isn’t polling better than 14%.
Bill Richardson (gov-NM) - 15 to 1, Carl Levin (sen-MI) - 20 to 1
We are getting into the long-shots. Richardson (3%) wants to be president and virtually nobody has noticed. Levin doesn’t want to run but has a presidential bearing.
Gary Hart (CO), John Kerry (sen-MA) , Tom Daschle (SD), Joe Biden (sen-DE) - 25 to 1 each
The old warhorses. Hart has been out of politics for a generation. Kerry (7%) is personality impaired. Daschle is forgotten. Biden (3%) has been running for president since Lincoln. Nominating any of them is giving up on the general election.
Evan Bayh (sen-IN), Chris Dodd (sen-CT) Tom Vilsack (gov-IA) - 99 to 1
Mike Gravel (AK) - 999 to 1
No hope. They are running out of ego.
Sources: CNN polling data, wikipedia
Handicapping the Presidential Race - Democrats
Strategists seek keys to 2008 presidential election
Top Democratic strategists on Thursday said firm plans for handling Iraq, tackling rising health costs and addressing other middle-class economic worries would be key to winning the nomination and the presidency in 2008. Their Republican counterparts argued that a return to conservative principles - and a candidate's ability to distance himself from Washington - would prove crucial to GOP hopes of holding the White House.
When examining the lessons of the 2006 midterms, Republicans "really have to look beyond what happened to the president as the result of the war in Iraq and look at what happened to the Republican brand. There are three legs to the stool ... social conservatism, fiscal conservatism and national defense," said GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a panel discussion at a forum sponsored by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and the Hotline, a political news service.
In a separate panel discussion, media consultant Steve Murphy said Democrats will be able to hold their majority in Congress and capture the White House if they remain focused on addressing the concerns of the middle class.
While Republican strategists say they underplayed the economy, particularly the rallying stock market, in the run-up to the midterms, middle class voters were actually fed up with stagnant wage growth and rising health care costs despite soaring corporate profits, said Smith, who represented New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a potential Democratic presidential candidate, in the panel discussion.
The 2008 presidential election promises to be a wide-open affair for both parties. For the first time since 1928, neither a sitting president nor vice president is seeking his party's nomination.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is the first candidate officially out of the gate on the Democratic side. But Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is seen exploring a run and is viewed as a potential frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Other Democrats expected to test the water include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards, and Sens. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joe Biden of Delaware.
On the GOP side, likely candidates include Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee announced this week that he wouldn't seek the GOP nomination in 2008.
GOP strategist Rich Galen, who served as an aide to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, said that as a result of the anti-incumbent atmosphere of 2006, none of the 2008 candidates are likely to run as political insiders who know how to make Washington work.
Galen quipped that he half-expected a candidate to "set up a campaign headquarters on Guam" in order to distance himself as far away as possible from the Beltway.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch.
Strategists seek keys to 2008 presidential election
Friday, December 01, 2006
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Romney May Not Create Exploratory Committee
Sources tell the Boston Herald
that Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "likely will forgo an
exploratory committee entirely, taking a different approach than fellow
GOP presidential front-runners Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New
York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani by declaring his candidacy outright
sometime after Christmas."
Meanwhile, Roll Call notes Kevin Madden, press secretary for House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), is leaving to join Romney’s staff.Romney May Not Create Exploratory Committee
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
The '08 Democratic Nomination: Playing the odds
winning the Democratic nomination? This is the first in a series of
weekly posts that will forecast the odds that each Democratic hopeful
has in winning the nomination.
As the war in Iraq boils over and the Democratic Congress prepares
to assume its leadership position in January, it is probably not a good
idea to become too fixated on the 2008 race for president. I don't
plan to analyze this each day between now and next fall. However, this
winter is a time in which a lot of candidates will start making formal
announcements. In the coming weeks, I will pay close attention to who
is thinking of joining the field.
As General Wesley Clark, a 2004 presidential candidate, said
yesterday, he made a strategic error by getting into the race so late
last time around. When he joined the field in September of 2003, he
hardly had any funds and did not even hire a campaign manager until
November. By that time, he only had two months until the Iowa Caucus.
From watching what happened to Clark in '03, candidates will want to
get in early. Setting up a presidential exploratory committee offers
potential contenders a loophole in the federal elections law that
allows them to raise cash without formally declaring their candidacy.
Since Hillary Clinton already raised tens of millions of dollars,
hardly anyone will be able to compete with her unless they start
setting up exploratory committees immediately.
Without further adieu, here are the odds for each of the possible
Democratic contenders. I base this on potential appeal in early
battleground states, unfavorable rating, potential issues in late-'07
and early-'08, fundraising potential, and net-roots support. This is
more or less my analytical bias, and does not represent any bias for
who I want the Democratic nominee to be (I am undecided, anyway!):
- Hillary Clinton - 24% chance
- John Edwards - 17% chance
- Barack Obama - 16% chance
- Al Gore - 15% chance
- Evan Bayh - 7% chance
- Bill Richardson - 5% chance
- Joe Biden - 5% chance
- Wesley Clark - 5% chance
- Tom Vilsack - 3% chance
- John Kerry - 2% chance
- Chris Dodd - 1% chance
Keep in mind that these numbers will fluctuate over time, especially
when some candidates from this list officially take their names out of
the hat.
Every projection like this requires some kind of analysis. Here is
the way I see it. Hillary Clinton is definitely in the lead right now,
for the most part due to her significant money advantage that would
help mobilize get out the vote efforts and travel in the early primary
states (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina). What she has
going against her is her vote for the war and her unpopularity among
Democratic activists.
That brings us to the race to become what I call the "anti-Hillary"
candidate. As of this moment, there is a log-jam between Barack Obama,
John Edwards and Al Gore. Voters who want an alternative besides
Hillary Clinton will likely choose between these three candidates.
John Edwards is very popular in the labor movement, who are more likely
to choose a Washington outsider that has stood against free trade
agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA. Al Gore is also a serious threat to
Hillary Clinton's nomination, and has a strong following in the
Northeast and out West. It still remains to be seen whether Gore's
green themes will catch on in Nevada, Iowa and South Carolina.
However, being that New Hampshire is in the Northeast, and being that
the state has historically respected independent-minded, maverick
candidates, Al Gore might even be the odds on favorite there. Then
there is the wild card: Barack Obama. The Illinois Senator is also a
threat to Hillary Clinton because he will grab a significant portion of
the female vote. Already pledging to announce his candidacy on the
Oprah Winfrey show, should he decide to enter the race, Obama might cut
Hillary's female voting base by a third. Out of the three -- Gore,
Edwards and Obama -- Edwards has a slight advantage because of his
popularity among local politicians in Iowa and Nevada. Edwards travels
to both places more than any other presidential hopeful in both
parties. In January of 2004, the Des Moines Register newspaper
endorsed him. Over the last half year, Edwards has campaigned with
hotel unions in Las Vegas. The Edwards strategy appears center around
winning Iowa and Nevada by getting the support of labor unions, while
conceding New Hampshire and then going after South Carolina, which he
won in 2004.
When you move down the list, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson,
Senator Joe Biden, and Senator Evan Bayh are still within striking
distance. They don't have a lot of name recognition, especially Evan
Bayh. But of the three, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh definitely has the
advantage. By next fall, those who have never heard of him today will
learn to appreciate him as a very positive, consensus-building leader.
As an opponent of gay marriage and flag burning, it would be difficult
for the Republicans to attack Bayh in the general election. However,
his biggest obstacle might come from the NRA, which has consistently
opposed his strong gun control stances. He voted for the Iraq war and
against partial birth abortion. However, he did vote against a repeal
of the estate tax, in support of investigating the no-bid contracts in
Iraq, and yes on a bill that would have reduced our dependence on
foreign oil (had it passed). He is very much an environmentalist, but
conservative on social issues. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden both have
foreign policy credentials. It is highly probable that they would be
considered as a vice presidential pick.
As far as the remaining candidates are concerned, here is all that
needs to be said. John Kerry would be committing political suicide by
running again, especially after his botched joke. Chris Dodd lacks
publicity. However, if the Connecticut Senator can pass his bill that
would repeal the Military Commissions Act, then he will have helped
himself. Tom Vilsack has declared his intention to run. Keep in mind
though that Vilsack is not even catching on in his home state of Iowa,
which still seems to be split between Edwards and Clinton. Wesley
Clark lacks both attention and money, therefore he would be wise to
enter the race ASAP.
Again, I am going to try and make this a weekly thing. If it
catches on, great. If not, then I will find some other way of
critiquing the field.
The '08 Democratic Nomination: Playing the odds
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Wesley Clark's Interview On 2008
Wesley Clark gave an interview in Providence, Rhode Island yesterday but did not indicate if he was thinking of running in 2008.
How likely is it that you'll run for president in 2008?
I haven't said I won't run.
If you do run, how will your campaign differ from your 2004 campaign?
In virtually every respect.
Wesley Clark Talks About 2008
Hispanic Voters Abandon GOP
writes that, per exit polls taken by the William C. Velasquez
Institute, Hispanic voters deserted the GOP on election day more
because of dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and job creation than over
immigration issues. “‘It was really the totality of issues that drove
people to the polls,’ said Michael Bustamante, spokesman for the
Velasquez Institute and the Latino Policy Coalition.” [FirstRead]
Monday, November 27, 2006
Allard to Retire?
According to the Denver Post,
"the buzz in U.S. Senate circles is that" Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO)
"might honor his pledge to serve just two terms and" not seek
reelection in 2008.
Candidates seeking to replace Allard on the Republican side may include
Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO), former Reps. Scott McInnis (R-CO) and Bob
Schaffer (R-CO), or Gov. Bill Owens (R). Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) appears
to have the initial edge on the Democratic side, and with $1.2 million
currently in the bank, "will make a formal announcement sometime next
year." Allard to Retire?
Huckabee Gets a 3 on the Gipper Meter
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Looking ahead at 2008 for the Dems
| |
One election ends, and we barely get to catch our
breath before we begin talking about the next — the biggie — the
presidential election in 2008.
The Democrats will have to find a new whipping boy — and a new message — as president George W. Bush can’t run again.
That
becomes a little bit easier by virtue of them picking up the House and
Senate after the GOP gift wrapped them with a series of scandals,
errors in judgement and its own wedge issues.
Immigration anyone?
Those
pickups allow the Democrats to try and set the agenda for the nation,
and when their reforms fall short — or are vetoed by Bush — they can
play the obstructionist card.
The Democrats, even if they have a message, will still have to try and find a candidate that can win.
Two
have already come out and said they are going to make a dash for 1600
Pennsylvania Avenue — Iowa governor Tom Vilsack and Mike Gravel, former
senator from the frozen wasteland of Alaska.
That pair
certainly aren’t the headliners, but given the Democrats’ recent
history of sometimes nominating someone coming out of nowhere, it’s
hard to count either of them out.
Of course, given the fact that
Gravel would only be able to, maybe, deliver Alaska and its whopping
three electoral votes — he’s less appealing than someone who could
bring a state on board that would make a difference.
Vilsack’s
big leg up is the chance to win early because his home state of Iowa
opens the primary/caucus season and could provide momentum going
forward. The flip side is that a loss in your home state almost
assuredly ensures a quick and graceful exit from the race altogether.
It’s expected that John Kerry could make another run at the White House, as could his vice presidential candidate John Edwards.
Kerry’s
biggest advantage is that he has already been through the wringer and
will know what to expect. His biggest liability is that he’s already
lost and tends to say the worst thing at the worst possible time. He’s
just not very likeable.
Edwards’ biggest advantage is that he’s
not from the northeast and has good looks and charm. His liabilities
include that he was a personal injury lawyer. Americans like lawyers
even less than they like politicians. He can’t be branded a loser
because he can blame the 2004 failure on the guy at the head of the
ticket — Kerry.
You also have retired General Wesley Clark — who
picked up the coveted Madonna endorsement in 2004, and New Mexico
governor Bill Richardson along with a host of other well-known names
like Tom Daschle, Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd. You also can’t rule
out the return of Al Gore — which would be an inconvenient problem for
many of the Democrats.
Of course, any conversation about the Democrats and their presidential aspirations has to begin with Hillary Clinton.
On
the positive side, she has phenomenal name recognition and is the type
of charismatic, dynamic personality that the party could use to
energize its base.
On the negative side, she has phenomenal name
recognition and is the type of charismatic, dynamic personality that
the party could use to energize its base — the Republican base.
While
many people would come out to vote for Hillary Clinton, an equal or
greater number would likely seize the chance to vote against her.
You
also can’t overstate the possibility of Clinton-Bush fatigue. By the
time the election is held, the last two decades will have had one or
the other in power. That’s a little too imperial for most Americans’
taste.
The wild card is Barak Obama — a dynamo who seems to gain
stature with every speech. He seems to have the type of charisma that
can cross party lines.
He’s also become a media darling, but that doesn’t always translate into wins.
Just ask Howard “Screaming” Dean.
Next week, a look at just where the GOP goes in the post-Bush era.
Looking ahead at 2008 for the Dems
Looking ahead at 2008 for the Dems
| |
One election ends, and we barely get to catch our
breath before we begin talking about the next — the biggie — the
presidential election in 2008.
The Democrats will have to find a new whipping boy — and a new message — as president George W. Bush can’t run again.
That
becomes a little bit easier by virtue of them picking up the House and
Senate after the GOP gift wrapped them with a series of scandals,
errors in judgement and its own wedge issues.
Immigration anyone?
Those
pickups allow the Democrats to try and set the agenda for the nation,
and when their reforms fall short — or are vetoed by Bush — they can
play the obstructionist card.
The Democrats, even if they have a message, will still have to try and find a candidate that can win.
Two
have already come out and said they are going to make a dash for 1600
Pennsylvania Avenue — Iowa governor Tom Vilsack and Mike Gravel, former
senator from the frozen wasteland of Alaska.
That pair
certainly aren’t the headliners, but given the Democrats’ recent
history of sometimes nominating someone coming out of nowhere, it’s
hard to count either of them out.
Of course, given the fact that
Gravel would only be able to, maybe, deliver Alaska and its whopping
three electoral votes — he’s less appealing than someone who could
bring a state on board that would make a difference.
Vilsack’s
big leg up is the chance to win early because his home state of Iowa
opens the primary/caucus season and could provide momentum going
forward. The flip side is that a loss in your home state almost
assuredly ensures a quick and graceful exit from the race altogether.
It’s expected that John Kerry could make another run at the White House, as could his vice presidential candidate John Edwards.
Kerry’s
biggest advantage is that he has already been through the wringer and
will know what to expect. His biggest liability is that he’s already
lost and tends to say the worst thing at the worst possible time. He’s
just not very likeable.
Edwards’ biggest advantage is that he’s
not from the northeast and has good looks and charm. His liabilities
include that he was a personal injury lawyer. Americans like lawyers
even less than they like politicians. He can’t be branded a loser
because he can blame the 2004 failure on the guy at the head of the
ticket — Kerry.
You also have retired General Wesley Clark — who
picked up the coveted Madonna endorsement in 2004, and New Mexico
governor Bill Richardson along with a host of other well-known names
like Tom Daschle, Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd. You also can’t rule
out the return of Al Gore — which would be an inconvenient problem for
many of the Democrats.
Of course, any conversation about the Democrats and their presidential aspirations has to begin with Hillary Clinton.
On
the positive side, she has phenomenal name recognition and is the type
of charismatic, dynamic personality that the party could use to
energize its base.
On the negative side, she has phenomenal name
recognition and is the type of charismatic, dynamic personality that
the party could use to energize its base — the Republican base.
While
many people would come out to vote for Hillary Clinton, an equal or
greater number would likely seize the chance to vote against her.
You
also can’t overstate the possibility of Clinton-Bush fatigue. By the
time the election is held, the last two decades will have had one or
the other in power. That’s a little too imperial for most Americans’
taste.
The wild card is Barak Obama — a dynamo who seems to gain
stature with every speech. He seems to have the type of charisma that
can cross party lines.
He’s also become a media darling, but that doesn’t always translate into wins.
Just ask Howard “Screaming” Dean.
Next week, a look at just where the GOP goes in the post-Bush era.
Looking ahead at 2008 for the Dems
2008, The Republican Contenders
exploritory committies were formed by potential candidates in the 2008
Presidential Race. 2008, The Republican Contenders
Judge Roy Moore Hints That Religious Right Could Run A Third Party Candidate In 2008
Presidential Candidates Court Activists In NH And Iowa
courting Democratic activists, John Edwards is a determined suitor.
The
former North Carolina senator and 2004 presidential running mate never
fails to propose when he calls Jim Demers _ and he calls often.
"I
don't think there's ever been a time I've talked to him when he hasn't
concluded by point-blank asking if I'll sign on to his team," said
Demers, a Democratic activist in New Hampshire.
Even before the
votes were cold in the November election, the ritual courting between
potential presidential candidates and Democratic and Republican
activists in early primary and caucus states was well under way in
anticipation of the 2008 presidential election.
Presidential Candidates Court Activists
Jim Gilmore May Enter 2008 GOP Race
Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia and Republican National
chairman, is quietly building an organization to get back into elective
politics -- perhaps as a candidate for president.
Gilmore might be looking to fill the mainstream conservative vacuum
created when fellow Virginian George Allen's defeat for re-election to
the Senate ended his presidential ambitions. Other options for Gilmore
could be running for the Senate in 2008 if Republican John Warner does
not seek another term at age 81, or running for governor in 2009.
The last Republican governor of Virginia, Gilmore also is the last
major Republican candidate to carry populous northern Virginia -- the
key to victory in the state. Open
McCain Getting Ready for Iowa Caucuses in 2008
will enter presidential caucuses in Iowa, the state he bypassed in 2000
on his way to nearly taking the Republican nomination from George W. Bush.
McCain Getting Ready for Iowa Caucuses in 2008
Friday, November 24, 2006
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Giuliani Moves Nearer to White House Run
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission this week that takes him one step closer to running for president. Giuliani Moves Nearer to White House Run
Obamamania!
For those looking forward to the respite in all things political from the lead-up to this month’s elections, you’re in for a rude 24 months. Indeed, the campaign checks from 2006’s gubernatorials have yet to be cashed and the race for the White House has already begun. This may seem anachronistic to some, but for all those involved, if you’re not sprinting now, you’re not winning in 2008.
Why? It’s simple. 2008 will be the most contested Presidential race in recent history. With a vice president not running and no spectacular names in mix (e.g. Eisenhower), it’s as good a chance as any for relocating to the Oval Office.
And I, like those now campaigning, am already working the crowd of Presidential hopefuls. Whose got my vote you ask? Barack Obama.
The Des Moines Register Obamamania!
Al Sharpton May Run Again In 2008
The Rev. Al Sharpton said yesterday he is “considering” a presidential
run in 2008.Al Sharpton May Run Again In 2008
If Al Gore Challenges Hillary Clinton...
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Giuliani Moves Nearer to White House Run
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani filed paperwork with the
Federal Election Commission this week that takes him one step closer to
running for president. A filing on behalf of the man once dubbed
"America's mayor" was hand-delivered to the commission on Monday, an
FEC...Giuliani Moves Nearer to White House Run
Romney Understands McCain And Giuliani
Eager to position himself as the most conservative GOP presidential hopeful, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney accused Sen. John McCain Monday of being “disingenuous” on gay marriage.
In an interview with The Examiner, Romney described himself as more conservative than Republican rivals McCain, R-Ariz., and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on a variety of issues. “We’re in a different place on immigration; we’re in a different place on campaign reform; we’re in a different place on same–sex marriage; we’re in a different place on the president’s policy on interrogation of detainees,” Romney said.
“I’m a conservative Republican, there’s no question about that,” he said. “I’m at a different place than the other two.” Romney Understands McCain And Giuliani
The Online Beat: A New Congressman Says 'No' to the President
attended last week's reception at the White House with President Bush,
Vice President Cheney, White House political czar Karl Rove and others
who had just finished plotting and executing unrelenting attacks
campaigns on the newcomers. But the target of some of the campaign
season's crudest attacks, Minnesota's Keith Ellison, had better things
to do. The Online Beat: A New Congressman Says 'No' to the President
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
How Many Others Will Flip?
More proof that New England Republicans are in danger of taking up permanent residence at the margins comes this morning when a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives switches from Republican to Democrat. North Stonington Republican Diana Urban, elected to a fourth term two weeks ago, often voted with Democrats in the legislature. Her departure from the ranks of the GOP reduces their number to 44 of 151.
Urban enjoyed a flurry of attention last summer when she launched a quixotic bid to run for the United States Senate as a petitioning candidate. She failed to collect the number of signatures required.
Why Urban waited until two weeks after the election to tell the voters of her district that she would no longer be a Republican is a question members of the GOP will be posing to Urban. [KEVIN F. RENNIE] How Many Others Will Flip?
CBS Poll Favors Obama, Clinton, and McCain
Clark's Iraq Plan
today's USA Today. The article is entitled, "The Next Move." In it, Clark lays
out his plan for Iraq. Clark's Chess Match
Can Romney Win?
"But some analysts and Republican insiders doubt that Giuliani is really planning to run for president. He’s just not that stupid: he does not imagine that Republican primaries can be won by a pro-choice, pro-gun-control New Yorker who moved in with a gay couple when his wife kicked him out of the mayor’s residence for having an extra-marital affair.As a result, all of Romney's actions in the last few months have been to ensure that he's seen as the viable conservative alternative to McCain -- someone who can speak to religious conservatives as well as business conservatives.
"Giuliani’s exploratory committee likely has a more short-term, pragmatic purpose: replacing his Solutions America political-action committee as the vehicle that pays him and his staff to travel around the country, speaking and raising money for himself and others. And, to maintain his A-list national profile."
Can Romney Win?
Monday, November 20, 2006
Bill Clinton On Ellen DeGeneres Show
Ellen DeGeneres welcomes former President Bill Clinton, center, and Jon Bon Jovi on Monday, Nov. 20, 2006 during a week of shows from New York City. This episode airs on Nov. 21, 2006.
♥ (
chelsea_energy) wrote in 
clinton_love,@ 2006-11-20 23:14:00
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Many Trying To Get Mark Warner To Rejoin 2008 Race
Conservative Bloggers Seek To Draft Lou Dobbs For 2008
Open
Saturday, November 18, 2006
The Economist Looks At Clinton vs McCain
when it comes to the race for the White House they have reinvigorated
the old order. Before the mid-terms the two front-runners—Hillary
Clinton and John McCain—looked as if they might be vulnerable to
challenges. Now they are further ahead than ever. Open
Friday, November 17, 2006
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Democrats Pick Pelosi, Hoyer as Leaders
Democrats select Pelosi
Hoyer Beats Pelosi’s Pick in Race for No. 2 House Post
Romney Hires Alex Castellanos
"The truest spots, most factual spots, are the negative and comparative," [Castellanos] said. "They inform the voters much more than a bunch of fluffy positives often do."
Widely considered one of the country's more influential Republican image-makers, Castellanos has produced television spots for President Bush, presidential candidate Bob Dole, and former senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina. Romney's move to recruit him sends a strong signal that the governor plans to mount a serious national campaign for 2008, political observers say.
Castellanos has generated controversy and, at times, hiccups for his clients by producing ads later exposed as misleading or factually incorrect.
Malibu Ken's mudslinger
Bob Dornan Running for President
B-1 Bob to Run for Prez?
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
First May Fare Poorly In Home State Of TN In 2008
By a significant margin, the voters who know him best said "no" when asked in Tuesday exit polls for The Associated Press if the retiring Senate majority leader "would make a good president."...
By a 44-37 percent margin, Tennesseans said "no" to a Frist presidency. The remaining 19 percent did not answer.Open
Speculation TN Gov. Phil Bredesen Might Run In 2008
The name of Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen has been mentioned lately as a possible 2008 Democratic presidential candidate….
Could this be a hint at a 2008 bid for president? The Chief of Staff position is typically first in line to claim the spot as campaign manager in a political bid.
Since he just got re-elected and won't run again, what would be the point in hiring a position that you've done without for 4 years?
Boy oh boy, I hope its true... we need you Bredesen... Open
At the Tennessee Womens Political Caucus convention in Nashville this past weekend Bredesen spoke and was asked if he would run for President in 2008. He tapdanced quickly away from any real answer but my inside source says Bredesen has a campaign button (given to him as a gift) that says "Phil in 08". Since no Democrat has won the Presidency since 1932 unless he (or she) carried at least two or three southern states. Bredesen has to think about this more than he admits. I am are sure this had nothing to do with Bredesen writing an op-ed piece for the New York Times (link - login maybe required) two weeks ago urging that a national campaign about healthcare reform should be the mantra for the Democrats. The Democrats would do well to take his advice.
Abramoff Tries To Implicate Harry Reid, Others
source close to the investigation surrounding his activities told ABC
News that Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) was one of the members of Congress
Abramoff had allegedly implicated in his cooperation with federal
prosecutors. Open
New Gallup 2008 Poll Shows Clinton, Obama, McCain, Giuliani In The Lead
it shows Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton still in the lead with Sen. Baruck Obama in
a strong second place. Former Sen. John Edwards trails in a weak third ...New Gallup 2008 Poll Shows Clinton, Obama, McCain, Giuliani Leading
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Giuliani Leads McCain for GOP Nomination
The action comes as Giuliani is the top choice of Republican voters nationwide earning support from 24% of likely GOP voters. Senator John McCain (R), considered by many insiders to have the early advantage, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are close on Giuliani's heels.
In General Election match-ups, Giuliani is tied at 46% support with New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D). However, Giuliani leads when matched against Senator Barack Obama (D) and former Vice President Al Gore (D). Clinton, Obama, and Gore are currently leading the Democratic nomination field.
Open
James Baker Mentioned For VP
James Baker swoops in like the ambitious vampoire he is and takes over.
Condi can rest soundly. Baker has already served as SecState. The
cherry-on-the-top of career as a non-elected "Statesman" is The Veep
position.
And he's already bested the greatest Burocratic infighter since Lucius Aelius Sejanus, namely: Rummy. Next, mark The Corsair's words, is Cheney.
The Corsair
Leach Mentioned For UN
Clinton May Give Signal By Thanksgiving, Edwards May Announce Tonight
Hotline On Call reports that Hillary Clinton may give the "go" signal to private donors and major supporters by Thanksgiving...
Her top donors have been told to expect a private signal as early as
December. If that timetable is correct – and no one who knows for sure
is talking – Clinton could push "go" over the Thanksgiving holidays.
Long-time allies of the Clintons would expect to see public trial
balloons floated as early as the first week in December.
The noose-tight upper echelon of Clinton’s political team
countenances no speculation about who will serve as campaign manager,
but the first among equals in her next campaign will likely be Patti Solis Doyle. Longtime Clinton associate Maggie Williams is also participating in informal interviews with potential senior staff.
Clinton Gears Up for Presidential Bid
PoliticalWire reports that John Edwards could announce tonight on The Daily Show...
Former Sen. John Edwards is scheduled to appear on The Daily Show tonight. It was on the show in 2003 that Edwards announced his presidential bid.Will Edwards Announce Campaign Tonight?
Hillary and Iowa
Democratic presidential nomination, John Podhoretz says:This decision
is a huge gift to the campaign of Hillary Clinton. With Vilsack in the
race, all other Democratic candidates...Hillary and Iowa
Wolfson to Oversee Hillary's '08 Comms War Room?
Is Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign comms team already falling into place? Monday's NYT profile of consultant / campaign communications director Howard Wolfson (right) suggests that...Wolfson to Oversee Hillary's '08 Comms War Room?
Monday, November 13, 2006
Clinton To Leave Senate Leadership Position
Hillary Has 12-Point Lead Among 2008 Democrats
prospective Democratic Party presidential contenders in the United
States, according to a poll by McLaughlin Associates. 31 per cent
of respondents would prefer to have the New York senator as the 2008
nominee.
Illinois senator Barack Obama is second on the list
with 19 per cent, followed by former vice-president Al Gore and 2004
presidential nominee John Kerry with 10 per cent each, and former North
Carolina senator John Edwards with six per cent.
Support is
lower for Delaware senator Joseph Biden, New Mexico governor Bill
Richardson, Indiana senator Evan Bayh, and Wisconsin senator Russ
Feingold. Hillary Has 12-Point Lead Among 2008 Democrats
Bush says immigrants can be held indefinitely, with no access to lawyers
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.
No more. Open
Wesley Clark Whispers In New York
Romney building Arizona 'network' for possible presidential bid
Journal of Phoenix:: "Romney also said he doesn't support same-sex marriages or
civil unions and would only extend rights or benefits pertaining to hospital ...Romney building Arizona 'network' for possible presidential bid
Cheney may go, opening field for 2008
David Nason, New York correspondent
WHEN US Vice-President Dick Cheney fired a shotgun into the face of
his buddy Harry Whittington on a hunting trip earlier this year, The
New York Post carried a banner headline that read: "Cheney's got a gun".
The headline explained how the quail shoot had gone wrong, and captured
the sense of foreboding Cheney has always brought to US politics.
Even the revelatory tone seemed to speak to the excessive
secrecy that is a Cheney hallmark - and which was evident in the
attempted cover-up of Whittington's near-death experience.
The shooting was back in February, when Cheney's immense influence over the White House was at its peak.
It was a time when the Iraq policy he had conceived with defence
secretary and lifelong pal Donald Rumsfeld - the policy that has come
to define the careers of both men - was holding up well enough for the
Bush administration to be contemplating troop reductions.
At the White House, Cheney's personal influence was amplified by his
oversight of the cabinet process, a role that gave him a say in every
area of government policy.
Cheney even had the authority to classify documents, something none
of his predecessors could do. In short, Cheney made himself the most
powerful vice-president in US history.
How things have changed. As the dust clears on the mid-term
elections, Rumsfeld is gone, the Iraq strategy is in tatters, the
Democrats control both houses of Congress and the once impregnable
Cheney has been left isolated and discredited.
Rumsfeld's dumping aside - a move Cheney vigorously opposed -
nothing indicated the sidelining of the Vice-President more than George
W. Bush's White House meeting last week with senior house Democrat
leaders Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer. Cheney was present, but when Bush
spoke of the significance of the talks, he forgot to acknowledge the
Vice-President's involvement.
"All three of us recognise the importance of working together to get
things done," Bush told reporters. It was a slip, but a Freudian one.
If Cheney quits, Bush could appoint in his place one of the contenders for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
Previously, Mitt Romney and George Pataki, the retiring governors of
Massachusetts and New York respectively, have been mentioned as
possible replacements in the event of a Cheney resignation. So has
George Allen, the ambitious but now defeated senator from Virginia, and
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
But what if Bush were to ask one of the Republican frontrunners,
either John McCain or Rudy Giuliani, to take the job? Would they accept
on the basis that the vice-presidency is the best place from which to
launch a presidential run, or would they decline for fear of being
tainted by the Bush legacy?
And if Bush were turned down, would he go for someone who is certain
to accept - perhaps his young brother Jeb, the Governor of Florida,
whose term expires in January? Bush has already said his brother would
make a "great president", so why not a vice-president?
The possibilities are many, and the impact on the 2008 presidential
race could be profound, but in the end it all rides on what Cheney
decides to do. At this stage he seems intent on staying put for the
report by the Iraq Study Group chaired by former secretary of state
James Baker.
One thing is for sure: talk of the 2008 US presidential race being a
contest without a vice-president among the candidates is way premature. The Australian
