A caveat, I am lousy at making presidential predictions. In 1974, I didn’t foresee an obscure governor from Georgia would be elected in 1976. I thought Walter Mondale would defeat Reagan in 1984. I predicted failure for the inarticulate, alcoholic son of a failed president in 2000.
Hillary Clinton (sen-NY) - 6 to 1
Leads the early polls with 33%. There is a huge anyone-but-Hillary movement (of which I am a member) but she has the best organization of anyone in the race, is a strong campaigner, and benefits from the financial advantages senators have. I will be disappointed if she wins the nomination, but not surprised.
Brian Schweitzer (gov-MO) - 7 to 1
This is a dark horse who isn’t mentioned on any of the polls. He is a successful western governor from a western, presumptively red state. My, albeit western, opinion is that the chances of a long term shift to a Democratic majority lies in making the western states blue. Nominating a western governor could make that happen.
Barack Obama (sen-IL) - 8 to 1
Second in the most recent poll (15%). He has more charisma than every other potential candidate combined. He has a John Kennedy aura about him. The question is whether he can maintain the charm for another 18 months.
John Edwards (SC) - 9 to 1
Last season’s charmer. His biggest flaw is he has no natural base to work from. Polling 14%
Wesley Clark (IL) - 10 to 1
The man with the military creds. If national security is a big 2008 issue, Clark will benefit the most. He has honed his media skills the past two years. Polling 4%.
Al Gore (TN) - 12 to 1
My choice. My man. The man who should have been president. His biggest flaw in 2000 was his image as a wooden politician. He has developed a vibrant speaking skill since then. I don’t know why he isn’t polling better than 14%.
Bill Richardson (gov-NM) - 15 to 1, Carl Levin (sen-MI) - 20 to 1
We are getting into the long-shots. Richardson (3%) wants to be president and virtually nobody has noticed. Levin doesn’t want to run but has a presidential bearing.
Gary Hart (CO), John Kerry (sen-MA) , Tom Daschle (SD), Joe Biden (sen-DE) - 25 to 1 each
The old warhorses. Hart has been out of politics for a generation. Kerry (7%) is personality impaired. Daschle is forgotten. Biden (3%) has been running for president since Lincoln. Nominating any of them is giving up on the general election.
Evan Bayh (sen-IN), Chris Dodd (sen-CT) Tom Vilsack (gov-IA) - 99 to 1
Mike Gravel (AK) - 999 to 1
No hope. They are running out of ego.
Sources: CNN polling data, wikipedia
Handicapping the Presidential Race - Democrats
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Strategists seek keys to 2008 presidential election
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The votes have barely been counted from the midterm elections, but political professionals from both parties are already picking their candidates and focusing on how to win the presidency in 2008.
Top Democratic strategists on Thursday said firm plans for handling Iraq, tackling rising health costs and addressing other middle-class economic worries would be key to winning the nomination and the presidency in 2008. Their Republican counterparts argued that a return to conservative principles - and a candidate's ability to distance himself from Washington - would prove crucial to GOP hopes of holding the White House.
When examining the lessons of the 2006 midterms, Republicans "really have to look beyond what happened to the president as the result of the war in Iraq and look at what happened to the Republican brand. There are three legs to the stool ... social conservatism, fiscal conservatism and national defense," said GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a panel discussion at a forum sponsored by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and the Hotline, a political news service.
In a separate panel discussion, media consultant Steve Murphy said Democrats will be able to hold their majority in Congress and capture the White House if they remain focused on addressing the concerns of the middle class.
While Republican strategists say they underplayed the economy, particularly the rallying stock market, in the run-up to the midterms, middle class voters were actually fed up with stagnant wage growth and rising health care costs despite soaring corporate profits, said Smith, who represented New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a potential Democratic presidential candidate, in the panel discussion.
The 2008 presidential election promises to be a wide-open affair for both parties. For the first time since 1928, neither a sitting president nor vice president is seeking his party's nomination.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is the first candidate officially out of the gate on the Democratic side. But Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is seen exploring a run and is viewed as a potential frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Other Democrats expected to test the water include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards, and Sens. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joe Biden of Delaware.
On the GOP side, likely candidates include Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee announced this week that he wouldn't seek the GOP nomination in 2008.
GOP strategist Rich Galen, who served as an aide to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, said that as a result of the anti-incumbent atmosphere of 2006, none of the 2008 candidates are likely to run as political insiders who know how to make Washington work.
Galen quipped that he half-expected a candidate to "set up a campaign headquarters on Guam" in order to distance himself as far away as possible from the Beltway.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch.
Strategists seek keys to 2008 presidential election
Top Democratic strategists on Thursday said firm plans for handling Iraq, tackling rising health costs and addressing other middle-class economic worries would be key to winning the nomination and the presidency in 2008. Their Republican counterparts argued that a return to conservative principles - and a candidate's ability to distance himself from Washington - would prove crucial to GOP hopes of holding the White House.
When examining the lessons of the 2006 midterms, Republicans "really have to look beyond what happened to the president as the result of the war in Iraq and look at what happened to the Republican brand. There are three legs to the stool ... social conservatism, fiscal conservatism and national defense," said GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a panel discussion at a forum sponsored by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and the Hotline, a political news service.
In a separate panel discussion, media consultant Steve Murphy said Democrats will be able to hold their majority in Congress and capture the White House if they remain focused on addressing the concerns of the middle class.
While Republican strategists say they underplayed the economy, particularly the rallying stock market, in the run-up to the midterms, middle class voters were actually fed up with stagnant wage growth and rising health care costs despite soaring corporate profits, said Smith, who represented New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a potential Democratic presidential candidate, in the panel discussion.
The 2008 presidential election promises to be a wide-open affair for both parties. For the first time since 1928, neither a sitting president nor vice president is seeking his party's nomination.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is the first candidate officially out of the gate on the Democratic side. But Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is seen exploring a run and is viewed as a potential frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Other Democrats expected to test the water include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards, and Sens. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joe Biden of Delaware.
On the GOP side, likely candidates include Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee announced this week that he wouldn't seek the GOP nomination in 2008.
GOP strategist Rich Galen, who served as an aide to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, said that as a result of the anti-incumbent atmosphere of 2006, none of the 2008 candidates are likely to run as political insiders who know how to make Washington work.
Galen quipped that he half-expected a candidate to "set up a campaign headquarters on Guam" in order to distance himself as far away as possible from the Beltway.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch.
Strategists seek keys to 2008 presidential election
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